Model performance
Every pre-game prediction PREDICTD publishes counts, using the last version published before tip-off. Preseason games and games where PREDICTD abstained are excluded from these numbers and counted separately. A 70% prediction should come true about 70% of the time; the calibration chart shows whether it does.
Live track record
No live regular-season predictions have resolved yet. This section fills in automatically.
Walk-forward backtest
Simulated, not live. For each season from 2005-06 to 2014-15, models were trained only on earlier seasons and calibrated on the season before, then scored on games they had never seen, using only information available before each tip-off. Model version 20260911.9d4de0.
| Forecast | Games | Accuracy | Brier (lower is better) | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PREDICTD ensemble | 12,900 | 67.2% | 0.206 | 0.599 |
| Elo alone | 12,900 | 67.2% | 0.207 | 0.600 |
| FiveThirtyEight Elo forecastExternal model, shown as a benchmark | 12,900 | 67.2% | 0.207 | 0.600 |
| Always pick the home teamNaive baseline | 12,900 | 60.0% | 0.240 | 0.673 |
| Predicted | Observed | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 7% | 29% | 7 |
| 17% | 19% | 212 |
| 26% | 26% | 672 |
| 35% | 35% | 1199 |
| 45% | 46% | 1686 |
| 55% | 53% | 2227 |
| 65% | 64% | 2540 |
| 75% | 75% | 2298 |
| 85% | 85% | 1685 |
| 92% | 93% | 374 |